By Michael Irgang, Global Risk Management Inc. The USDA’s February Cattle on Feed report estimated a February 1 feedlot inventory of 12.106 million head, 101.5% of a year ago and above average trade estimates of 100.9%. The reported ‘on feed’ number was also the second largest in the entire data series, which began in 1996. Continue Reading »
February USDA Supply/Demand Report – Ending Stocks Estimates too Conservative?
By Brian Harris, Global Risk Management Inc. The USDA released their February Supply/Demand updates for the corn and soybean markets on Tuesday and the changes were relatively minor. Current spot contract corn and soybean futures prices have risen 73% and 66% respectively since August of 2020 as stellar demand from China has tightened the balance Continue Reading »
Soybean Crushers are Running at a Record Pace in the Face of Shrinking US Soybean Supplies. Is it Sustainable?
By Patrick Sparks, Global Risk Management Inc. Supported by profitable crush margins, U.S. soybean crushers have been running at a record pace this season. Recently reported U.S. crush data from the USDA showed that 193.8 million bushels of soybeans were processed in December, a new record for the month. This compares to 184.7 million bushels Continue Reading »
The USDA’s January Cold Storage Report Showed an Increase in Boneless Beef Supplies: Does this Mean Increased Availability for the U.S. Market?
By Michael Irgang, Global Risk Management Inc. The USDA’s January 2021 Cold Storage report pegged total inventories of boneless beef in cold storage on 12/31/2020 at 497.7 million pounds, an increase of 23.8 million pounds, or 5.0%, from the prior month. This inventory build for the month of December is higher than the normal inventory Continue Reading »
Demand Rationing? China Says ‘Not Yet’ as They Book Massive Amounts of U.S. Corn This Week
By Max Olson, Global Risk Management Inc. The nearby corn futures in the U.S. have rallied $1.50 since the beginning of November (+38%), attempting to ration demand amidst the significantly tighter domestic supply estimates. On the January USDA report, the U.S. ending stocks for the 20/21 crop year were estimated at 1.552 billion bushels, or Continue Reading »
Futures Prices Versus Acreages – A Statistical Perspective
By Adam Graves, Global Risk Management Inc. A variety of factors may impact a producer’s decision to plant one crop versus another. Crop rotation, soil makeup, and several other environmental elements can certainly be influential in this choice, as can other determinants. In a season where ending stocks of corn and soybeans are projected to Continue Reading »
U.S. Beef Production has Benefitted Significantly from Higher Fed Cattle Weights: Will the Party End Soon?
By Michael Irgang, Global Risk Management Inc. The U.S. beef industry faced widely publicized production challenges in 2020, largely due to COVID-19-related issues at the packing plants. One positive for U.S. beef production was elevated dressed weights for fed cattle coming off of feedlots to be marketed to packing plants. While total cattle slaughter for Continue Reading »
All Eyes on the USDA’s January Reports
By Brian Harris, Global Risk Management Inc. The USDA will release several reports on Tuesday, January 12th that have the potential to influence grain prices for the next few, if not several months. The main area of focus will be on the changes to the 2020/2021 ending stocks projections for the soybean and corn markets Continue Reading »
What Does a La Nina Hold for South American Soybean and Corn Production?
By Patrick Sparks, Global Risk Management Inc. A continuation of cooler than normal ocean temperatures in the Pacific means a La Nina is in full effect! Often referenced but frequently misunderstood, La Nina’s and its close relative El Nino can have significant impacts on agricultural production. In general, a La Nina is a global weather Continue Reading »
Key Takeaways from the USDA’s December WASDE Report
By Max Olson, Global Risk Management Inc. No upward revisions to soybean or corn exports means prices are high enough for the moment, but all eyes remain on South American weather and Chinese demand. The December WASDE updates are typically a boring affair since the USDA does not update their supply estimates this month, and Continue Reading »